| | The determinist position comes in many more sophisticated varieties that Nathan's caricature of it.
The key point to remember when adjudicating between determinism and indeterminism is that the indeterminist is uncomfortable with how determinism seemingly undermines moral responsibility. The key question is always the following: how does the empirically-motivated, indeterminist view of volition aid the cause of his defence of volition being indeterminist? If his answer doesn't do better than that of the determinist, he is free to fall back on paradox, but he is irresponsible if he claims that his position is clearly the better one.
I'm a compatibilist, so I think that determinism and volition are compatible, and that the important point is not whether the future is open or closed, but whether the future can be anticipated or not. I'm a determinist, a physicalist determinist, because I believe that human behavior can be analyzed exhaustively using reductionist analysis with physics at the lowest level.
'Volition is impossible. All things which feel like volition have antecedent causes and are not actually the result of genuinely free will. It just feels that way. You have will, a desire, but you don't actually have a choice in what you desire. This is the incompatibilist definition of volition. For an incompatibilist determinist, this is correct. Note that this view requires a Laplace's Demon's perspective of events.
'Boeing 747s, for example, were inevitable, and we could have predicted them if only we knew a) the state of a large portion of the universe at a particular moment, b) all the forces at work in that large region of the universe, and c) all the effects those forces could have on that large portion of the universe. Yes. A determinist would argue that if he knew the laws according to which things evolved, he could predict anything. This doesn't mean that you need to know everything to predict something, or that a determinist could know everything, and this doesn't mean that the only laws required to make the predictions are the laws of physics currently known nor that Boeing 747s would not have been invented if the Wright brothers had never been born. This also doesn't commit a determinist to the greedy reductionism that Nathan thinks is necessary to be a determinist.
'In other words, in October of the year 1004 we could have predicted EVERYTHING about the last Boeing 757 to roll off the assembly line, every part, every wire, every computer chip, millions of parts, ONE THOUSAND YEARS LATER in 2004.
If we knew the laws at work, yes. The whole point of causal inquiry is to determine the laws at work.
'Of course, this is a little difficult to demonstrate, because the number of facts we would have needed to know is approximately 10 to the power of 4.57 followed by 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 zeroes.
Give or take a quadrillion zeroes. And in 1004 four we only knew 8 facts, just a little shy of the requirement.
'What? What's that you say? You say that even if we knew all these things it wouldn't help, because many things are not predictable from their initial states?
Not predictable from what perspective? From Laplace's Demon's perspective or ours?
'Well, if that's true, then volition is not a causal thing, it's just randomness.'
Only because the incompatibilist definition of volition requires indeterminacy. Until the question of what indeterminacy adds that is so greatly desired is made clear, then given the success of science in reductively analyzing human behavior, determinism is the default scientific position for volitional behavior.
'I start with the evidence of my experiences. It certainly FEELS like I can make choices. I don't actually have any reason to doubt it. The appeal to intuition, an appeal that has been moderated strongly by 20th century empiricism. It feels like we see colors everywhere in our field of vision, so why do people become shocked when they try to read a color of a playing card while looking straight forward, and starting the card from the outliers of their vision field, realize that they can only tell the color of the card when it is almost directly in front of them?
The whole point of scientific empiricism is that the feeling of what happens may not reflect many aspects of what happens and may be false in many epistemic respects.
I ask myself: What is the more likely explanation: that I do not actually make the choices I seem to be making, or that their view of causality is flawed?
'I think it vastly more probable that determinists do not understand causality. They cannot actually predict anything of consequence for which the more overwhelmingly likely explanation is volition, such as Boeing 757s. 'If we only knew enough things, we could!' is a very hollow claim.
I think that your view of choice is naive, but that is my own view, voiced best by the classic Spinoza quote with which I believe you are acquainted.Your view is possible too, but the question is how you would distinguish it from that of a determinist. You will find eventually that you cannot, and since you've already embraced the claim that some aspects of human behavior are deterministic, the question is this: what does indeterminism give you that determinism doesn't?
One of Dennett's favorite arguments against the indeterminist infatuation with open futures is character building. Do we really want to be free to renege on our most cherished principles? When Luther said, "Here I am; I can do no other", was he trading for his feedom to choose for a loaf of bread?
'What experiments would I devise to prove that my choices are volition and not the chiming of a clockwork mechanism? What kind of event or result would clearly be the result of volition and beyond the claim of 'inevitable consequence'?
'As it happens, I have devised just such an irrefutable test, but it is too complicated to fit into the margin of this page. Besides, I CHOOSE not to tell you what it is.' Yes, and some people speak of God, and Fermat claimed to have a proof for his Last Theorem. Evidence, please, or go the way of the theist.
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