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Post 20

Friday, October 24, 2008 - 2:15pmSanction this postReply
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Hi Jordan,

And I agree that actual contradictions provide certainty of error -- see falsification. The trick is finding certainty of correctness. Contradictions won't help as much with that. Your veridical generalization doesn't seem to depend on contradictions anyway! What it does depend on is a consistency or order in the world -- ...
But here's the rub: reality's one way and not others. Every falsification is an inverted proposition. If you flip a coin and tell me it's not heads, then I will be able to tell you it's tails; I will be able to tell you what it is from merely knowing what it's not. Things more complicated than coins merely involve more falsifications.

Ed


Post 21

Friday, October 24, 2008 - 5:23pmSanction this postReply
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Ed, what if the side that is not heads is blank? Just because something is not white doesn't make it black. You have to be careful to distinguish opposites from contradictories. Not heads is not the contradiction of not tails.

Post 22

Saturday, October 25, 2008 - 8:01amSanction this postReply
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Ted,

I see your point about opposites, contraries, disjunctives, and contradictions -- but I meant normal coins (which have both heads and tails).

Falsification can still get you to truth.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 10/25, 8:01am)


Post 23

Sunday, October 26, 2008 - 7:20pmSanction this postReply
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Hi Ed,

Falsification has falsifying power, not "truthifying" power unless the problem is disjunctive, which it rarely is due to the "uncountability" of potential competing hypotheses. When the problem is disjunctive, it is because we've made a great number of assumptions about the situation, just like we did with the dice, thereby eliminating all hypotheses but two.

Jordan


Post 24

Monday, October 27, 2008 - 8:00amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

Falsification has falsifying power, not "truthifying" power unless the problem is disjunctive, which it rarely is due to the "uncountability" of potential competing hypotheses.
There you go again (appealing to the arbitrary).

Ed


Post 25

Monday, October 27, 2008 - 10:13amSanction this postReply
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It's the number of alternative competing hypotheses considered that's arbitrary.

Jordan

Post 26

Monday, October 27, 2008 - 11:36amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

Here's more on the method of using falsification in order to truthify something:

It's the 17th Century and you notice folks get sick on long sea voyages, losing their teeth, bruising, and dying from internal bleeding. You say to yourself: "What the F&@$?"

You notice that folks don't get sick when they suck on limes all day. You say to yourself: "Heyyy. I'm willing to bet that the limes prevent the scurvy (you don't actually know what scurvy is, just that it sucks)."

[You give limes to the British Navy and they dominate the seas for a century]

Your great-grandchildren isolate compounds from limes. They give the compounds separately. When an isolated compound doesn't work and another does work, then they know -- think don't merely think or believe or believe strongly with prejudice and fervor or believe unsurpassingly or yadayada -- they know (from the falsification) that it's not the one compound doing it, but something in the other (vitamin C and citrus bioflavanoids).

It's an advance in knowledge, solely from falsification.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 10/27, 11:38am)


Post 27

Monday, October 27, 2008 - 3:31pmSanction this postReply
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Hiya Ed,

You've assumed it was something in the limes, and nothing else, that resulted in scurvy. You've assumed it was a compound, just one. You've assumed my grandkids isolated all the compounds. And you assumed they did it correctly. And that's just crazy since I don't even have grandkids! :P

Jordan

Post 28

Monday, October 27, 2008 - 5:31pmSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

If you study James Lind and Linus Pauling, then you will realize that this is history (i.e., fact), not mere assumption.

If an isolate of the lime does what the whole lime can do (as I wrote above), and another isolate of the lime doesn't (as I wrote above), then you get into the position of knowing that the second isolate didn't do it (as I wrote above).

You narrow down the potential, alternative, competing causes (as I wrote above) -- and that narrowing is an advance in knowledge, solely from falsification.

Ed


Post 29

Monday, October 27, 2008 - 7:46pmSanction this postReply
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Hi Ed,

Which alternative hypotheses do we choose from? Falsification tells which to discard, not which to consider. We need to make inductive assumptions in order to generate hypothesis.

Maybe it'll help to mention that I'm fully on board with your scurvy methodology. We just part ways when drawing conclusions from it.

Jordan


Post 30

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 6:06amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

Do you think it's possible (however unlikely) that Scurvy is not due to vitamin C deficiency? 

Do you think it's possible (however unlikely) that Rickets is not due to vitamin D deficiency? Do you think it's possible (however unlikely) that Beri-beri is not due to vitamin B-1 deficiency? Do you think it's possible (however unlikely) that Pellagra is not due to vitamin B-3 deficiency?

And, if you think it's possible that all these are not due to all them, then how is that not general doubt (i.e., vulgar skepticism), rather than specific doubt (evidence-based skepticism)?

Ed


Post 31

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 11:36amSanction this postReply
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Hi Ed,
how is that not general doubt (i.e., vulgar skepticism), rather than specific doubt (evidence-based skepticism)?
It's neither. I accept that the conclusions regarding scurvy, beri-beri, rickets, and pellagra are reliable. I'm not skeptical of them; I have no doubts about them. But reasonableness compels me to leave open the possibility of revising those conclusions should other evidence come along. It's a concession to my non-omniscient and non-infallible nature.

Jordan


Post 32

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 11:55amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

There's a tension where you, on the one hand, say you have no doubt about it and, on the other hand, say you leave open the possibility of having doubt about it (should "other evidence" come along).

In doing this, you start out without doubt. Then, when an advance in knowledge comes along, you say to yourself:

"See! I was wrong! I was certain (i.e., without doubt) -- and I was wrong, at the same time! Certainty is absolutely impossible!"

[not realizing the certainty required to in order to utter those last four words]
That's where your logic leads. Now, I understand you are a lawyer. So, how do you address these wily accusations?

:-)

Ed



Post 33

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 11:59amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

Another way to argue against you is to mention how you have to base doubt on specific, specified, or specifiable evidence (and to not just say "other evidence [could come along]"). It's the general doubt of a solipsist when you don't specify the evidence.

Ed



Post 34

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 1:15pmSanction this postReply
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Hi Ed,

Here's how I address the accusations: When I am doubt free, that means I am completely convinced of something. It does not have to be a certainty for me to be doubt free about it and completely convinced of it. Doubtlessness does not equate to certainty. When I say that other evidence might come along, I'm not doubting those conclusions of which I'm completely convinced.  I'm not at all skeptical of them. Once completely convinced of the conclusions, I agree with you that specific evidence is required for doubting them. You seem to reject, out of hand, the possibility of such specific evidence. I don't. It is not skeptical or doubting to simply acknowledge my non-omniscience and non-infallible nature. How bout that? Are you convinced?

Jordan


Post 35

Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 7:37pmSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

Okay. You say that doubtlessness doesn't equate to certainty. However, there are two kinds of certainty, philosophical and psychological -- and only man experiences philosophical certainty (though psychological certainty is shared with animals). In both cases of certainty there is doubtlessness, but there's something more with philosophical certainty. I'd say that doubtlessness equates to psychological certainty. But would agree that it doesn't equate to philosophical certainty.

You seem to reject, out of hand, the possibility of such specific evidence.
There you go again (appealing to the arbitrary). This time, you attempt to narrow it down with the word "such" (while avoiding defining what "such" is or means). I don't reject, out of hand, the possibility of evidence that can change many folks' conclusions. However, there are ways to make conclusions rock-solid, so that they will never be rejected -- because of the impossibility of counter-evidence (which I've been talking about in this thread).

Once you understand the mechanics of something enough, you are in a position to divide the possible from the impossible. With the example of the elephant and the flea, one needs to understanding the mechanical limitations of biophysics in order to outline the scope of the possible, and to delineate that from the scope of the impossible. Here is a relevant quote :

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.--Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
Ed


Post 36

Wednesday, October 29, 2008 - 10:08amSanction this postReply
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I'm surprised no one here has mentioned H.W.B. Joseph's discussion on the presuppositions of induction in his An Introduction to Logic, in which he explains how induction rests on the law of identity.

Hume held that causation involves nothing more than spatial contiguity and temporal continuity. In cases in which A is said to cause B, he held that we observe no necessity between A and B. All we observe is that B follows A in a certain sequence and relationship. But causation involves more than that; it involves an actual production of the effect. To say that A "causes" B is to say that given A, B must happen. Given a a rock of a certain size thrown against a window at a certain speed, the window must break! Hume disagreed. We see the rock thrown against the window, he said, and we see the window breaking, but we don't see any necessity in this picture; we don't see that the action of the rock necessitates the breaking of the window.

Joseph answers Hume as follows: "[I]f a Thing is to have any determinate nature and character at all, there must be uniformity of action in different things of that character, or of the same thing on different like occasions. If a thing a under conditions c produces a change x in a subject s -- if, for example, light of certain wavelengths, passing through the lens of a camera, produces a certain chemical change (which we call the taking of a photograph of Mount Everest) upon a photographic film -- the way in which it acts must be regarded as a partial expression of what it is. It could only act differently, if it were different. As long therefore as it is a, and stands related under conditions c to a subject that is s, no other effect than x can be produced; and to say that the same thing acting on the same thing under the same conditions may yet produce a different effect is to say that a thing need not be what it is. But this is in flat conflict with the Law of Identity.

"A thing, to be at all, must be something, and can only be what it is. To assert a causal connexion between a and x implies that a acts as it does because it is what it is; because, in fact, it is a. So long therefore as it is a, it must act thus; and to assert that it may act otherwise on a subsequent occasion is to assert that what is a is something else than the a that it is declared to be." (pages 407-408)

Post 37

Wednesday, October 29, 2008 - 10:57amSanction this postReply
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Thanks, Bill.

That's what I've been talking about when I've been claiming that Jordan's concerns are arbitrary. There is something possible to everything and there is something impossible to anything. To disagree, to argue against the uniformity of the laws of Nature (and, therefore, of Identity itself), is absurd.

You've got to believe that A can be not-A, in order to believe that.

Ed


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Post 38

Wednesday, October 29, 2008 - 11:05amSanction this postReply
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Ed,

There's nothing arbitrary in allowing the possibility of new evidence; there's nothing arbitrary in acknowledging pur non-omniscience and non-infallibility. In order to be arbitrary here, I'd have to pull some evidence out of hat in order to doubt my conclusion. No magic hats here. 

What is arbitrary is the point at which you foreclose the possibility of error. When you believe your conclusion is certain, beyond error, rock-solid, then you reject the possibility of new evidence; you do do so out of hand; which is to say you arrest your knowledge and assume a point of omniscience. 

Bill,

Circumstances change. Objects change. Identities change. This makes predictive certainty impossible. Joseph's critique doesn't overcome this point. The issue is not with the law of identity. It is with the efficacy of casuation identification.

Jordan  


Post 39

Wednesday, October 29, 2008 - 11:24amSanction this postReply
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Jordan,

I'm not saying that you know that something caused something else simply because it precedes something else in time (i.e., "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy). I'm talking about understanding the mechanistic causation. Here is an example with tools:

You've got a hammer, some nails, and some screws. You make the veridical (rock-solid) generalization that, for general construction purposes, the hammer works better on the nails than it does on the screws.

How do we know that -- without examining all of the instances of nail-hammering and screw-hammering?

It's because we understand the mechanics of hammers and nails. When we build a hammer, we purposefully make it hard and heavy on one end (because of the uniformity in the laws of physics). When we make nails, we purposefully make them point at one end, blunt at the other end, and smooth in-between (because of the uniformity in the laws of physics).

We can even say, without examining repeated trials, why the hammer doesn't hammer in the screws as well as the nails (because of the uniformity in the laws of physics). In fact, it is precisely because we can say why screws won't work as well as nails, that it is a veridical (rock-solid) generalization.

There isn't a "possibility" of finding "new evidence" proving that we've been wrong all along -- because we understand the process enough to predict and weigh future findings.

Ed


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