RoR: Forum

Boy, is SOLO ever leaping forward! A was taken aback when I read (some years ago) that SOLO was predicted to take over the world by 2008. Just for fun, I calculated (from past performance) a conservative estimate which provides a picture of SOLO in 2008 ...

World domination by 2008?

A conservative estimate of growth would be mere linear growth--with current growth as the base.
40 months would take us to August 2008. Assuming linear growth for the next 40 months reveals a picture of SOLO in August 2008:

Articles on SOLOHQ: 3101................(50 per month)

Forum posts on SOLOHQ: 218,200....(4600 per month)

Author Count: 496...............................(9 new authors per month)

SOLOHQ Members: 5724..................(114 new members per month)

Page Hits (est.): 30 Million....................(460,000 per month)

Well, there it is folks: 6000 troopers armed to the teeth with 3000 articles from 500 generals. And remember, that is a CONSERVATIVE estimate utilizing mere linear growth!

Comparing SOLO vs. the world then, it looks like the world is standing on shakier, and shakier ground. And, after learning of all the new translations of Rand's works taking place in other countries--I'm going to have to go out on a limb and give the fight to SOLO (it just seems too likely that the world will shortly we be overtaken by this irresistible force).

Ed

Post 1

Friday, April 1, 2005 - 11:20am

Ed, your attention to facts and figures is positively charming. Let's hope these projections prove to be correct. :)

Post 2

Friday, April 1, 2005 - 11:32am

Joe,
The improvement in speed is very noticeable in all those functions. And the changes were made so seamlessly without interruption of the site for even a day. Great job.

Hong

Post 3

Saturday, April 2, 2005 - 9:48am

Wow! When I agreed to write for Solo, I didn't know anybody was going to be reading this stuff! This is getting a little frightening. I'm not going to submit that article on Scrooge McDuck as the greatest Scotsman since Adam Smith...
Ed, can you tell me if we continue to grow by the same PERCENTAGE each month, at what moment precisely will every human be involved in Solo?

Seriously, you can feel the momentum building here, and I am real glad that I am one of the authors to have joined last July. I look forward to meeting lots of you in sunny California in a few weeks!

Post 4

Saturday, April 2, 2005 - 5:30pm

James, as per your request ...

Data:
-Current total SOLOHQ Members: 1164 (114 new members this month)---11% growth (10.8%), compounded monthly

-Monthly compounding rate = 1.11 (11%)

-Rule of "Seventy": 70 / (compounding rate; as a %) = doubling time

-Starting from April 2005 (month 0)

-Doubling time = 6.36 months (~6 months)

-1 year = quadrupling time
-----------------------

years out................total SOLO members

0....(April 2005)............1164
1....(April 2006)............4656
2....(April 2007)............18,624
3....(April 2008)............74,496
4....(April 2009)............297,984
5....(April 2010)............1,191,936
6....(April 2011)............4,767,744
7....(April 2012)............19,070,976
8....(April 2013)............76,283,904
9....(April 2014)............305,135,616
10...(April 2015)............1,220,542,464
11...(April 2016)............4,882,169,856
12...(April 2017)............19,528,679,424*

*expected population--ie. 7-8 Billion--will have been exceeded (all humans will be members of SOLOHQ--in 12 years from now)

James, this is a crude estimate, so I included my figures transparently. Even though this is a slight overestimate--one may predict that, in 12 years from now (if various assumptions hold), everyone in the civilized world will have at least heard of--if not, have been personally touched by--SOLOHQ.

Ed

Post 5

Saturday, April 2, 2005 - 11:44pm

Ed,

I don't really have much else to say about that... except to point out how awesome that was. Simply awesome.

I'm doing my part to encourage that growth too. I leave my door open while I'm looking at the site... and everyone wants to know what the heck I'm doing. I think it's great. Even my boyfriend's in on this now. Whoo-hoo!

~Nicki T.

Post 6

Sunday, April 3, 2005 - 6:30am

Yes, Ed - weren't you the one so worried about not seeing these changes within your lifetime? [on a different thread] [or am I thinking of another member]

Post 7

Sunday, April 3, 2005 - 10:29am

Thanks for the appreciation and inspiration, Nicki T!

Robert, alas it was me. I was the one, fearing stagnation, wallowing in intellectual frustration about this, that, and the other thing. Now however, after being inspired by SOLO members, I've stepped into the_light_and I see things differently.

I may backslide again--as the weight of responsibility in the_light_is unmistakable. Perhaps my fear was not of stagnation, but of the responsibility of being a torch-bearer in life.

I may, once again, frantically sound an alarmist trumpet of anxiety over an issue that I feel is both important and being let slip away.

If I were a mystic, I'd say I have a curse--the curse of seeing connections which many others miss. This is somewhat like say, the schizo-affective disorder of Nash, or perhaps the autistic-savant syndrome featured in the movie Rain Man.

But that's enough about me and my double-reverse psycho-babble. Thanks for keeping me honest, though!

Ed

Post 8

Sunday, April 3, 2005 - 4:08pm

Just one query for the Exec - any idea why there is a web directory link on the front page to 'Islamic Goods Direct'?!

Post 9

Monday, April 4, 2005 - 1:57am

Thanks for the number crunching Ed. Looks like we may have to work a little harder if we want to hit the 2008 deadline.

Hong, thanks for the comment. There were actually a few glitches along the way, but most of it got updated without causing too much trouble. It was a long month though!

Jonathan, I saw it too. Weird. I blame Lindsay.

Post 10

Monday, April 4, 2005 - 4:46am

Moi? I was just testing to see who was awake.

Actually I saw it in the queue, & naturally my first inclination was to reject it. Then I thought of all the fun I would have watching the furore if I posted it. I've been bitterly disappointed.

Post 11

Tuesday, April 5, 2005 - 10:54am

Oh Linz, you have so much to learn in the realm of silliness. You blew it this time, man. But at least you tried. Your timing was off and you didn't create a buzz before bestowing your joke upon the world. Better luck next time.

BTW, keeping Frankenstein's picture up in the author's page is a very cruel joke. He scares the bejesus out of kittens in Chicago. Kindly delete those who have been banned. thanks.

Post 12

Tuesday, April 5, 2005 - 11:07pm

For the conference coming up, you can see a satellite image of the beach house on google maps (cool feature!).

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=4912+seashore+dr,newport+beach&spn=0.007446,0.010364&t=k&hl=en

Post 13

Tuesday, April 5, 2005 - 11:54pm

Joe,

For the conference is there unrestricted street parking ( no move your car every day or need a special tag stuff )?

Phil

Post 14

Wednesday, April 6, 2005 - 7:23am

What a cool feature, Joe! I didn't expect it to be so close-up. Thanks!

Jason

P.S. - You might consider re-posting that in one of the last conference announcements.

Post 15

Thursday, April 7, 2005 - 1:38pm