About
Content
Store
Forum

Rebirth of Reason
War
People
Archives
Objectivism

Post to this threadMark all messages in this thread as readMark all messages in this thread as unread


Post 0

Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 4:03amSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
"There are 3 types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics"........... Mark Twain

I thought you would enjoy this quote.

George W. Cordero


Post 1

Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 6:05amSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
"There are 3 types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics"........... Mark Twain

You are correct this was originally quoted by Mark Twain, who attributed it to Disraeli. Apparently the two men met. It would be interesting to know more about their meeting - as both were against overbearing state control and both had a great sense of humour.


Post 2

Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 12:03pmSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
I need to really think about what you are saying. You have an extremely interesting point to make here. At first blush, it seems that there is indeed value in statistics. If not for any individual situation, there is an overall increase in probability that allows actuaries to structure payments in a manner that makes insurance companies predictably wealthy.
I love the etimology of statistics and will quote it ad infinitum until friends start to seriously complain about it.

Post 3

Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 1:28pmSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
statistics can be very useful. often times you can't get a definite certainty because the precise circumstances involved won't allow it, and, of course, in reference to mass populations, statistics ARE certainties. this said, another thing to add to your historical tirade against this much abused concept. much as its etymology shows a verbal evil, so its invention shows a more direct one. Statistics as they now exist were invented, in large part, by a man named francis galton: also the first person to come up with the idea of eugenics. statistics were intended by him as a precise method of deciding who is and is not fit to breed, from what I know of the matter.

Post 4

Wednesday, August 18, 2004 - 3:32amSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit

My Book says that statistics were first used by John Graunt in 1662, when he published a paper entitled Natural and political observations made upon Bills of Mortality. According to this account, he studied the records in London mortuaries, and then devised probabilities as to what would be the most likely cause of death in different age groups.

 

However, it was Sir William Petty (an acquaintance of Graunt), who was the first to actively apply this new mathematics to economics and politics. He used these accounting practices to justify a type of “land grab” in Ireland.

 

The scariest passage from the book is this, "Yet, if the countryside [in Ireland] and its people could be reduced to figures, so too could everything else. Petty foresaw a day when a nation's power, its art, and even its opinions would be calculated by 'political arithmetick'. Eloquence, reputation and authority would be all measured. This may seem extreme when stated so baldly, but it was very much a reflection of current rationalistic optimism." 


Post 5

Wednesday, August 18, 2004 - 12:02pmSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
An excellent read on statistics and probability and how we are fooled by them is:

Fooled by Randomness by Nasim Taleb

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1587990717/qid=1092855546/sr=8-1/ref=pd_ka_1/102-8269837-9311339?v=glance&s=books&n=507846


Post 6

Tuesday, February 15, 2005 - 2:05pmSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
I, too, see the over-use/manipulations of statistics by lawyers and politicians as "mysticism", or system of beliefs, that justify their involvement in private lives. They truly defraud the average person into thinking they're getting something in return. The use of true science and math, has become distasteful, in a world where, you can just suppose a truth, and the trusting follow.

Post 7

Wednesday, February 16, 2005 - 11:01amSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
Anyone who has an angle can usually present numbers to support their position. If you change the scale on an Excel chart you can make your numbers tell a very different story. People do it all the time.

 In Return of the Primitive I think there was a piece about environmentalists and such using numbers as scare tactics to further their agenda. When people start rattling off statistics, look at how these numbers and "facts" relate to the big picture.  And always look to see notes and sources relating to the information being presented.

P.S.  I make my living as a chart monkey   : )


Post 8

Saturday, May 7, 2005 - 7:56pmSanction this postReply
Bookmark
Link
Edit
I empathize with your frustration at their misuse.
But as a scientist can you seriously doubt the overwhelming value of probability theory
to furthering our pursuit of knowledge?

I don't think they're the be all and end all of human understanding, but as
an ex-student of physics they seem pretty indispensable...


Post to this thread


User ID Password or create a free account.