RoR: Forum

November 21, 2008, Gallup Poll puts Palin first, admittedly close, 5 points over Romney, 6 above Huckabee.

This tally from Public Policy Polling April 15, 2010, also supports the "dead heat" contention ... including President Obama's own place with about 44% of the vote against any of the three. Note however that the numbers are not firm because the sample is small. You need 1054 to be 95% confident with +/- 3% error.

PPP surveyed 622 registered voters from April 9th to 11th. The margin of error is +/-
3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

This CNN poll found that as of April 10, President Obama could win against Sarah Palin. Therefore, looking behind the numbers reveals what may be hidden strengths as November 2012 nears.

The poll found that 61 percent of Americans think Palin is not a typical politician, and half see her as honest and trustworthy. But 54 percent say they don't agree with her on the issues, 56 percent say she is not a strong and decisive leader, and 69 percent say she is not qualified to be president. Palin is popular in the South and in rural areas, but her unfavorable rating is at or near 60 percent among women, suburbanites, Independents, and in the Northeast and West.
The poll was conducted April 9-11, with 1,008 adult Americans, including 907 registered voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points and plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for the sample of 498 Republicans and Republican leaning Independents.

Again, not a full tally of points, fewer than 500 Republicans of all stripes, but close...

So, yes, Jeff, Sarah Palin seems to be the clearn frontrunner only with me because whatever else, she has more presence of personality -- and that counts for more than issues or headlines or stances and it counts for more in the only poll that matters, the one on the first Tuesday in November. ... a long ways off...

Post 21

Sunday, May 30, 2010 - 8:43pm

Michael,

I applaud your effort to back your assertion, but I believe your methodology is flawed. Numbers from November 2008 are clearly meaningless now. The other polls at the links you provide don't break down the potential Republican nominees against one another, but against a theoretical matchup against Obama, which don't answer the question.

However, I see by this Fox News poll that Palin's numbers have improved of late, so there is some support for your statement.

Overall, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (42 percent favorable) has the highest favorable rating of the potential 2012 Republican candidates in the poll. He is followed closely by former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (40 percent favorable) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (37 percent favorable). About a third of voters have a positive view of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (32 percent favorable).

Among only Republicans, Palin (65 percent favorable) and Huckabee (64 percent favorable) lead the field � topping Romney (59 percent favorable) and Gingrich (51 percent).

Even these Rasmussen numbers from October 2009 are a bit old now, but they show a similar breakdown.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 Presidential campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 24% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while 18% would cast their vote for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Not the front runner, but in the pack, certainly and it's early days yet.

Post 22

Tuesday, June 1, 2010 - 6:06am

JP: I applaud your effort to back your assertion, but I believe your methodology is flawed. Numbers from November 2008 are clearly meaningless now. The other polls at the links you provide don't break down the potential Republican nominees against one another, but against a theoretical matchup against Obama, which don't answer the question.

It might have been better to have backed the assertion before I made it (ahem). I agree that a poll from 2008 loses impact -- and the only poll that counts is the one on the first Tuesday in November 2012 -- which is why it matters whether this or that Republican out-polls the President.

Still, the numbers then and now point to Sarah Palin's potentials. Since 2008, She resigned the governorship and spoke in Hong Kong, and now to Tea Parties. I perceive that as a trajectory.

Post 23

Wednesday, June 2, 2010 - 7:57am

Has there ever been a case in which a vice-presidential candidate who lost an election came back and won as a presidential candidate?

John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Dan Quayle, Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, Sargent Shriver and Ed Muskie all tried and failed. It turns out that under our present political format, FDR is the only losing vice-presidential candidate to eventually become president.

For whatever reason, history is not on Palin's side. Could it be that if you can't win as a vice-presidential candidate, voters have even less confidence in you as a presidential candidate?

Post 24

Wednesday, June 2, 2010 - 8:50am