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Post 20

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 11:11pmSanction this postReply
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Just fixing a visual aid after advice from Merlin:


     Loan payments proceed down the chain
***********************************
          --home buyers--
        [get mortgage from]
                          \
                            \
                              \
                                \
                          --lenders--
                      [sell mortgage to]
                      /                          \
                    /                              \
                  /                                  \
                /                                      \
--investment banks--              --Fannie/Freddie--
              [sell securitized mortgages to]
                   \                               /
                     \                           /
                       \                       /
                         \                   /
                 --individual investors--
        [purchase credit default swaps from]
                                         \                                              
                                           \                                    
                                             \                                 --individual speculators--
                                               \                          [purchase credit default swaps from]
                                                 \                                   /
                                                   \                               /
                                        --securities insurance companies *********************************************************                                                                           

Screw PowerPoint.

:-)

Ed


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Post 21

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 - 11:41pmSanction this postReply
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Ed wrote,
But I've heard that they aren't different anymore, because, I've been told, we don't print extra money anymore. Instead, the main (the only signficant?) mechanism to increase the money supply nowadays is to lower the Fed interest rate. If that's true, then there is a functional equivalence between money supply and Fed interest rate.
The interest rate you're referring to is the federal funds rate, which is the interest that banks charge other banks for overnight loans. But this rate is not set directly by the Federal Reserve. It is set only indirectly by an expansion or contraction of the money supply through the buying and selling of Treasury bonds. If the Fed wants to lower the federal funds rate, it does so by injecting money into the economy through its purchase of Treasury bonds on the open market; a procedure called "open market operations". If it desires to raise the Federal Funds rate, it does so by withdrawing money from the economy through the sale of Treasury bonds to investors on the open market.

So rather than set the federal funds rate directly by fiat, as it were, the Fed "targets" the interest rate it desires through the buying and selling of Treasury bonds, and lets the supply and demand for loanable funds determine the interest rate. If the federal funds rate turns out to be higher than the Fed's target rate, the Fed will buy Treasury bonds; if it turns out to be lower, the Fed will sell Treasury bonds, thereby withdrawing money from the economy.

The interest rate that is set directly by the Central Bank is the discount rate, which the Fed itself charges for loans to member banks, but nowadays that particular rate is rarely used in determining the money supply.

So, the Fed can determine the money supply by targeting the federal funds rate and by directly raising or lowering the discount rate. It can also do so by setting reserve requirements, the amount of money banks are required to hold on reserve (usually 10% of the total funds on deposit).

Quantitative Easing I and II focused on injecting a set amount of money into the economy rather than on targeting a specific federal funds rate, probably because the federal funds rate was already so low -- practically at zero -- that Bernanke & Co. saw it as pointless to try to lower it any further. For example, in QE2, The Fed increased the money supply by $600 billion, which it will loan to the federal government through the purchase of long-term Treasury bonds over the next eight months, thereby "monetizing the debt." Normally, the Fed buys short-term bonds on the open market as way of injecting money into the economy.



Post 22

Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 7:26amSanction this postReply
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Ed, if you want to edit your visual aid again :-) I suggest deleting individual (twice).

Common usage distinguishes between individual -- e.g. you and me -- and institutional investors -- investment bankers, mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds, endowment funds, sovereign funds. It is mostly institutional investors that buy MBS.

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Post 23

Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 11:18amSanction this postReply
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Ed,

What your schematic needs now is the engine that drives this system, with -ACORN- and lines going to -home buyers- and to -lenders-.

-CRA- with it's line going to -lenders-.

The -FED- needs to be in there with it's lines (buying toxic securities, making cheap money available to -Fannie/Freddie, lowering the discount rate, increasing the money supply/lowering the fed funds rate, changing the reserve requirements, etc.

And the lines from and to the -politicians- particularly to -CRA- and -ACORN-

And lines from -FED- to -?- and back (we don't know until we get that audit).

You could have -rating agencies- with broken lines so they don't fully connect anywhere.
--------------------

It was all happening at a velocity that outpaced the ability of developers to create new homes (resulting in the price increases). But the developers weren't sitting idle; they had been operating at 100% capacity in an industry that ramps up, and expands, fast.

Has anyone heard any figures that describe what percentage of the home buyers who defaulted were investors versus purchasers that were living in the house they couldn't afford? Another chart that would be interesting would show the percentage of defaults by the size of the investor (how many units were owned by the defaulter).

I also have a suspicion that some area were far more active than others due to local conditions - like heavy organizing via ACORN, maybe with hook-ups to some sleazy lenders and they worked like a team just churning out bad paper.


Post 24

Thursday, March 17, 2011 - 4:49pmSanction this postReply
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Good points, fellas.

Revisions will be forthcoming.

Ed


Post 25

Saturday, March 19, 2011 - 8:48pmSanction this postReply
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Component-Adjusted Securitization Food Chain (CASFC)
 
Not depicted
--Fed "easy money" policy increased rate and volume down chain
--Corrupt politicians had relationships with ACORN and CRA
--Likely scandal (fraud) involving odd results from rating agencies
***************************************************
          --home buyers--
        [get mortgage from]
             /            \
ACORN             \       CRA (threat of force)
(mob tactics)        \        /
                    \          \     /
                --private lenders--
                 [sell mortgage to]
                 /                          \
                /                              \
               /                                  \
              /                                      \
--investment banks--            --Fannie/Freddie--
              [sell securitized mortgages to]
                   \                               /
                     \                           /
                       \                       /
                         \                   /
                     --private investors--
        [buy credit default swaps (CDSs) from]
                                         \                                              
                                           \                                    
                                             \                   --private speculators--
                                               \                           [buy CDSs from]
                                                 \                                   /
                                        --securities insurance companies
*****************************************************
 
Ed


(Edited by Ed Thompson on 3/19, 8:50pm)


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