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Friday, June 25, 2010 - 10:19pmSanction this postReply
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I know it's been of popular belief that Social Security is a system that has to be phased out, rather than ended "cold turkey"; however, I'm under the belief that it would be impossible to do so.

Now, I'm not saying it because the majority want their social security--of course they do; humans love buying into scams, but that's not the point.

As the system is already bankrupt and is pretty much being paid for by the current crop of workers on payroll, the only way that it could be phased out would be to convince an entire generation of people that money will be taken out to pay for their grandparents THAT THEY WILL NEVER GET BACK...but also that they'd be the last generation to do so.

good luck with that happening. Every generation says "I paid into it, so I want my share"

I may be an individual who wants no part of that ponzi scheme....but try convincing anyone else my age of it; you'll never do it.

Either you end the program "cold turkey", or it doesn't get ended; it's that simple. It's how it was always designed; absolutely brilliant I'd say...and I don't mean absolutely brilliant as in "this is a great system"...I mean absolutely brilliant as a way to guarantee people are suckered in, and will likely never want it to end.

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Saturday, June 26, 2010 - 11:55amSanction this postReply
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I'd say the other, and possibly more doable, way to end it would be to simply allow people to opt out of it, on the conditions that those opting out agree to not be eligible for any accrued "benefits", and that the program must be entirely funded by voluntarily contributions by those choosing to stay in it.

This would result in a death spiral of increasing premiums until even the most die-hard liberal realizes that SS is not sustainable without coercion.

Of course, liberals and current recipients will fight this proposal tooth and nail.

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Saturday, June 26, 2010 - 12:08pmSanction this postReply
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I don't think conservatives would be on board for it either, to be honest.

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Saturday, June 26, 2010 - 12:59pmSanction this postReply
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"Conservative" politicians -- only a handful.

Actual conservatives -- the ones not eligible soon for SS benefits would likely be for it.

You have to be a pretty principled anti-government person to be in favor of taking away a check from the government you're currently receiving.

Me, if I could make SS voluntary, I'd do it in a heartbeat, and I'm eligible to start receiving checks in a bit over a decade.

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Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 3:57amSanction this postReply
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This was a topic earlier on this forum here

Mr. R Kay wrote:
I know it's been of popular belief that Social Security is a system that has to be phased out, rather than ended "cold turkey"; however, I'm under the belief that it would be impossible to do so.
Phasing it out is a "popular belief"? I say it is a radical and very unpopular idea. On the other hand, ending it cold-turkey would be even more unpopular.
As the system is already bankrupt and is pretty much being paid for by the current crop of workers on payroll, the only way that it could be phased out would be to convince an entire generation of people that money will be taken out to pay for their grandparents THAT THEY WILL NEVER GET BACK...but also that they'd be the last generation to do so.
good luck with that happening. Every generation says "I paid into it, so I want my share"
That young people would have to pay into it and get nothing back is necessary for a phase out. A simple way to phase it out would be to increase the "normal retirement age." The later one is born, the higher the age. If the age is raised high enough, then at some time nobody would reach eligibility.

Of course, there are more ways to reduce the SS outflow, like no more or more limited cost-of living adjustments and lower benefit levels in terms of monthly income.


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Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 4:07amSanction this postReply
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Ending a Socialist scam unpopular among the masses? Really? Gee...who'd have ever thought it...

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Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 3:47pmSanction this postReply
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You are so smart, Merlin -

Of course, there are more ways to reduce the SS outflow, like no more or more limited cost-of living adjustments and lower benefit levels in terms of monthly income.
 
I'd suggest eliminating the practice of using SSI for so called "disabled" people who've never worked a day in their lives.  Obese, "chronically depressed," etc.


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Friday, July 2, 2010 - 2:53pmSanction this postReply
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There is another alternative.

Transition it from a defined benefit plan(benefit levels paid no matter what the revenue level is) to a defined contribution plan(benefits determined by available revenues).

This of course means lower than promised by politicians benefits. Well, no shit. Realistically, that is a given no matter what we do, short of taxing/borrowing our kids into oblivion.

But, it has the following features:

1] No reason to ever raise intergenerational tax rates, ever, just to keep the program going. It is what it is.

2] Intergenerational fairness. If a generation wants more retirement benefits, then it has to raise more kids. Feed them, bandage their skinned knees, wipe their noses, send them to school. Just like the Greatest Generation did, which is what enabled the Boomers, which is what enabled the support ratio that ultimately determined their intergenerational benefits. But, if a generation chooses second vacation homes and bass boats over raising kids, then tough, life is choices, and life choices aren't made up by overtaxing the next generation to make up for our crappy choices. If we labored under a 15% intergnerational tax, then we have no right to ask the next generation to labor under a 25% intergenerational tax, just because we raised fewer of them, or becuase politicians long dead made vote buying promises using other peoples money.

Never mind that the Greatest Generation labored under a 3-6% FICA tax burden. You know what? They defeated Hitler. They left 400,000 of themselves in a meatgrinder, defeating Totalitarianism, and enabling every economic opportunity that came since. They earned some slack, they deserve out thanks, and Soc Sec as it was was our one time generational 'thank-you' to the Greatest Generation.

But, they're gone, or well going, so now it's time to restore sanity to Soc Sec.

3] This accounting would allow the program to run forever, with never a crisis. The only thinkg we'd be missing out on is the hollow vote buying promises of politicians long dead. We'd get over it. Getting less benefits than promised by some glad handing fools is not in the same league as leaving a leg in Normandy.

4] Pool the yearly revenue, divide it up. It is what it is.

Don't screw over our kids in the name of keeping politicians hollow promises.

This will be a 'painful' transition, but only in the sense of losing a hollow promise from some once vote buying, glad handing politicians who could not do the math. Get over it. But, we could phase this in over time. The sooner we start, the less painful the required transition will be, the more time folks will have to plan their lives accordingly.

regards,
Fred

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Friday, July 2, 2010 - 3:03pmSanction this postReply
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There are many different alternatives that have the benefit of being fair and realistic... and painful but better than the results of blindly continuing off the cliff.

But whatever alternative is chosen, let it fade away after a generation or so. Let it gradually become less attractive in a marketplace free to offer competitive retirement plans.

The end goals have to include getting the government out of the retirement business.

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Post 9

Friday, July 2, 2010 - 3:30pmSanction this postReply
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Steve:

I'd vote for that. I think a path there is as follows:

1] Transition it to a defined contribution plan. Then...

2] Transition it to a voluntary defined contribution plan, allow folks to opt out. At this point, the program is competing with private alternatives, and very shortly thereafter...

3] Eventually, all that remains of -all- of these FDR/Johnson Great Society Era programs are merged into Heyek's minimalist safety net. Soc Sec. is no longer mismanaging 15% of the nation's earnings, and the entire nation is no longer on some kind of half-assed national welfare program. State plumbers are state plumbers again, honarably keeping the state plumbing clean, not half-assed emperor wannabee Barny Frank runners of 'the' economy...

regards,
Fred

Post 10

Saturday, July 3, 2010 - 1:56amSanction this postReply
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they defeated Totalitarianism, you say? Hardly.

They cheered Totalitarian prospects and pseudo-Capitalism while going overseas to fight dictators who preached the exact same thing.

Then they passed the same mentality on to their kids, and wonder why those kids are too afraid to take down evil regimes and pay lip service to freedom like Mommy & Daddy did.

I refuse to call them the Greatest Generation; I'd like to call them the Greatest FAILURE of a Generation, but I don't think they screwed up any worse than any other generation did..they just did it in their own way.

Anyway, back to talk about SS.....

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Post 11

Sunday, July 4, 2010 - 5:14amSanction this postReply
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President Bush's proposal a few years ago was a partial transition to a defined contribution plan. It proposed allowing a part of a worker's FICA taxes to be diverted to an individual account. It was a very bad proposal, however, because it included no cuts to the defined benefit plan and would make the upcoming cash deficits even worse.

I believe a defined benefit plan would be far better in the long run though. It would severely curtail politicians ability to avoid funding what they promise. Funding would done by the time the worker retires and could not be deferred to after the worker retires as it can with a defined benefit plan.

Indeed, I believe defined benefit plans should be curtailed for employees of governments -- federal, state, local -- and public school teachers. Only defined contribution plans would be allowed.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 7/04, 5:18am)


Post 12

Monday, July 5, 2010 - 12:56pmSanction this postReply
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I wonder if the only thing that will actually get rid of these welfare programs is an eventual default on the government debt.

Post 13

Monday, July 5, 2010 - 1:46pmSanction this postReply
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Default on the government debt will happen unless there is a massive shift in the direction we are going. I see no way to avoid it that doesn't involve massive cuts in spending - like 50% - and getting rid of many taxes and regulations at the same time. Anything less and it will arrive all on its own. And it will make more changes than anything I can think of. We wouldn't be able to wage war (good wars or bad), keep very many bases open anywhere, do any foreign aid, any of the entitlement programs, bail anything out, subsidize any industry, pay the salaries of any government workers...

I'm betting that is more change than Obama voters hoped for!

Post 14

Monday, July 5, 2010 - 2:32pmSanction this postReply
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Although I personally lean toward the belief that it will take a full on collapse for any real change with these programs. I really don't think it will happen, but I think a "phase out" could work in practice if the US found the political will to make it happen. I think it would take a strategy along the lines of a moratorium on foreign aid with those funds diverted into social security. This would allow for a halt in new enrollments in the program. Current participants would have their retirement age increased and their contribution decreased proportionally in a tiered plan based on length of participation in the program. I'm sure the foreign aid funding wouldn't be enough to fully subsidize the program until the pressure of years of gross mismanagement subsides as current beneficiaries die off and less enter that phase of the program, so the fund diversion would probably have to be expanded into other non-essential (read most) government programs. I'll call that an added bonus. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some sort of national request for voluntary assistance from the citizenry, mostly caring for the elderly to keep costs down as low as possible until they die. The altruists are supposed to be doing this anyway (according to them), and I'd be willing to bet a fair number of egoists would be willing to put a bit of effort in based on the desire to eliminate these programs as soon as possible. It would take decades to reverse the damage but I think it would eventually work.

Of course that is just an intellectual exercise. I doubt very seriously if any meaningful action will be taken. I think its more likely the country will just demand the band play on until the whole thing collapses.

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Monday, July 5, 2010 - 3:55pmSanction this postReply
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They can 'demand' all they want, but once the band leaves the building, those demands are the only sound they'll hear. Out of money and out of credit means no more tunes. People will catch on to printed pieces of paper so fast that no one will be able to build wheelbarrows fast enough.

Many of the old and no small number of the young will die. That is what is coming if things are not fixed. It has happened before - history is rotten with corpses, and pretending it couldn't happen here isn't an effective fix.

(Edited by Steve Wolfer on 7/05, 5:00pm)


Post 16

Wednesday, July 7, 2010 - 6:44amSanction this postReply
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Steve:

The primary elements at risk are the bloated promises of politicians, and those who believed their nonsense.

We could 'fix' SS, per above, by transitioning it to a defined contribution plan(and eventually, voluntary defined contribution plan, but enough for now that it be defined contribution.)

No crisis. Program lasts forever. All that is missing is that which was never going to be anyway, the hollow promises of clueless politicians buying votes using OPM spent long ago.

The 'pain' felt by those getting less benefits than promised by politicians is not new pain, it was always going to be, because those politicians could not do the math.


That isn't exactly true. They could do the math, they just didn't give a rat's ass about the future.

Well, that future is officially here, and some are in denial. The rats panicking and contemplating screwing over their neighbors children to make this pig fly aren't worth the spit, but shame on them anyway. Their ire should be directed on the hollow promises of politicians who sold them a government inspired bill of goods.

They handed over 15% of their earnings (I can read the 941)for their entire working lives, so that an already surplus paying generation could be overtaxed and an even bigger than normal pizza party thrown. All that surplus tax was simply taxed and spent immediately faster-- that is the sum and substance of the government's mismanagement of SS. "We would have borrowed the money anyway ...if we would have had to politically raise that extra borrowing in the light of day." Really? THe nation didn't realize you were _borrowing_; the nation thought you were _saving_ for an easily predictable coming rainy day. _borrowing_ is not _saving_.)

The pizza party is over, all that is left are empty boxes, time to clean up the mess and grow up as a nation. Unless, given the present narrative, the reason for the pizza party and the easily predictable coming mess was exactly to destroy a once free nation and pave the way for paternalistic megalomania, totalitarianism.

Nothing an axe wouldn't cure, taken to DC.

regards,
Fred



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Friday, July 9, 2010 - 7:34amSanction this postReply
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I wrote:
I believe a defined benefit plan would be far better in the long run though.
I mistyped. That should have been defined contribution plan. To elaborate it is far more evident to far more people, especially the participants, whether or not an employer is properly funding a defined contribution plan than a defined benefit plan. With a defined contribution plan each participant has an individual account and can easily see when money is added to it. In contrast with a defined benefit plan a participant (before retirement) is simply told what he/she can expect as an income (usually monthly) after retirement. To what extent the employer has funded / is funding said future income is far from obvious.


Post 18

Friday, July 9, 2010 - 2:03pmSanction this postReply
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Merlin:

I agree fully, and I think it was obvious from context that is what you meant to type.

regards,
Fred

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