Self-fulfilling Prophecies
by Joseph Rowlands
Many writers have commented on the fact that government programs often lead to the opposite of the results that were intended. For instance, minimum wages, allegedly intended to help the poor, actually prevents them from getting any job at all. This is an excellent example of acting on an incorrect premise. The premise is that wages are set arbitrarily by the employer, and a benevolent government can just force that wage higher. Of course, if this premise is wrong (and it is) and wages are set by some objective criteria (supply and demand), then the effect is very different. Instead of pushing up the wages of the poor, it pushes anyone under the price control into unemployment.
This is true of a large class of mistakes. When you act on an incorrect premise, the results end up being very different than you expected. If you try to build a bridge with an incorrect premise, it just might collapse on you. If you believe a plant is edible, and it isn't, you will get sick and maybe die.
These kind of mistakes are usually self-correcting. When the effect ends up radically different then you expected, you have a cue from reality that you missed something. If you examine your premises, you're likely to find out what you did wrong. And you have a strong incentive to get it right next time, or you'll never achieve the result you wanted.
So for this kind of mistake, reality provides a feedback loop. It gives you a chance to realize that you were wrong, and do something about it. Of course, there's no guarantee that figuring it out will be easy. Some problems can be so complex that it's very difficult to determine what was the mistaken premise. But at least you've been made aware of the problem.
There is a kind of mistake that doesn't have this feedback, though. Certain kinds of mistakes are self-reinforcing and have no visible effect that can draw your attention to the mistake you've made. This can happen when you expect failure from a course of action and act accordingly. Meaning, you don't do something because you think it'd be bad or wouldn't work. By not acting, you never get that cue from reality that you're mistaken. In fact, you get exactly what you expected.
For instance, if you believe that a girl you're attracted to wouldn't consider dating you, you may be completely wrong. By not trying, you may be losing out on a wonderful opportunity. And if you do miss out on it, the result will be exactly what you had expected. You will not date, and maybe she'll find someone else. Instead of a mysterious effect that makes you ponder what you did wrong, you will end up content that you were right.
The damage done from these mistakes comes in the form of lost opportunities. You don't see the effect of your actions. This creates an interesting situation. These mistakes don't hurt you directly, so they're much less dangerous in the short term. But because these mistakes have unseen effects, they are the least likely to be corrected. This makes them far more damaging in the long run.
To correct this problem, you have to create a habit of recognizing when you are choosing not to act based on some premise. Since reality won't signal you, you have to do it yourself. You have to learn to double-check those decisions, asking whether failure is really guaranteed. You have to encourage yourself to be optimistic and look for opportunities. Sometimes you'll have to take risks, trying something that just might end in failure. But if you're successful, the results will make it all worthwhile.
Discuss this Article (3 messages)
|
